How to Set Your Own ‘Good’ Marathon & Half‑Marathon Time – Data‑Backed, Personalized, and Ready for Your Pacing App

How to Set Your Own ‘Good’ Marathon & Half‑Marathon Time – Data‑Backed, Personalized, and Ready for Your Pacing App

The moment the road turned into a story

It was a grey November morning, the kind that makes you question whether the clouds are trying to keep you warm or just to make the miles feel longer. I was on the last kilometre of a 10 km training run, the pavement slick with a thin sheen of rain. As I turned the corner onto the familiar park path, a lone jogger ahead slowed to a walk, his breath ragged, his eyes fixed on a small, battered notebook in his hand. He raised his head, smiled, and shouted: “What’s a good marathon time for you?”

That question stuck with me. It wasn’t a challenge to beat elite runners; it was a question about personal meaning. It sparked a memory of my own first marathon, where I had set a goal of sub‑4 hours, only to finish in 3 h 58 min after a disastrous second half that felt like running through a storm. The experience taught me that “good” isn’t a universal number – it’s a conversation between you, your body, and the data you trust.


From a story to a concept: defining a personal ‘good’ time

1. Why “good” is personal

  • Age and gender – research shows the average marathon finish time sits around 4 h 21 min (≈9:59 min / mi, 6:12 min / km). Women tend to finish about 30 minutes slower on average, but the spread is huge. A 30‑year‑old male runner might see an average of 4 h 10 min, whereas a 55‑year‑old runner’s average climbs to 4 h 20 min.

  • Fitness level – if your recent half‑marathon is around 2 h 0 min (≈5:44 / mi, 3:35 / km), you’re likely in the 2 h 00 min–2 h 15 min bracket for a marathon, assuming you can sustain the effort for 26.2 mi (42.195 km). If your recent 10 K pace is 5:30 / mi (3:24 / km), you might be able to target a sub‑4 hour marathon with the right training.

2. The science of pacing

A large data set of over 4 million marathon finishes shows the second half of a race is, on average, 11 min 48 s slower than the first half. That’s a clear sign of “starting too fast”. Studies of elite and recreational runners reveal a U‑shaped relationship: too fast early, you ‘hit the wall’; too slow, you leave potential on the table.

Key research points:

  • Even pacing reduces the likelihood of a dramatic slowdown. Women, on average, maintain a more even pace, losing about 18% less time than men over the same distance.
  • Personalised pace zones (easy, steady, threshold, and interval) allow you to train the exact effort you need for your target finish.
  • Adaptive training – adjusting weekly mileage and intensity based on recent performance (e.g., a fast 5 km or a slow long run) helps keep your body responding, not plateauing.

Turning the concept into action: self‑coaching with smart tools

1. Build your own pace chart

  1. Gather recent race data – 5 km, 10 km, half‑marathon times.
  2. Convert to a target marathon pace using a simple calculator: target pace = (half‑marathon pace × 1.1) for a conservative estimate, or (half‑marathon pace × 1.05) if you’re confident in your endurance.
  3. Divide the marathon into zones – e.g.,
    • Zone 1 (Recovery): 10 % slower than target (≈7:00 / mi for a 4 h target).
    • Zone 2 (Endurance): 5 % slower (≈6:45 / mi).
    • Zone 3 (Tempo): 5 % faster (≈6:15 / mi).
    • Zone 4 (Interval): 15 % faster (≈5:45 / mi). This gives you a personalised pace chart that you can reference before each run.

2. Use adaptive training

  • Weekly mileage should increase by no more than 10 % per week. If you’re at 40 km per week, aim for 44 km next week, then 48 km, etc.
  • Every fourth week, drop the long run by 20 % to allow recovery – a crucial part of avoiding injury.
  • Every two weeks, insert a custom workout that targets your weakest zone. If your threshold pace feels too hard, do a 12 × 400 m interval at Zone 4 with 90‑second jogs. If you’re losing stamina after 30 km, add a 20‑minute steady‑state run at Zone 2.
  • Real‑time feedback (e.g., heart‑rate and pace alerts) helps you stay in the right zone during the workout.

3. Track and tweak

  • After each long run, compare the actual split to your target zones. If you see a 15 % slowdown after 30 km, that’s a cue to increase your Zone 2 volume.
  • Use a collection of your favourite runs (e.g., “Early‑Morning 8 km” or “Hill‑Repeat Set”) to keep the training fresh and share them with your local running group – a great way to stay motivated and to see how others are handling similar paces.

The final stretch: a simple starter workout

Happy running! If you’re ready to turn the idea of a ‘good’ time into a concrete plan, try this four‑week introductory cycle. It’s designed for anyone who has a recent half‑marathon around 2 h 00 min and wants to aim for a sub‑4 hour marathon.

DayWorkoutPurpose
MondayRecovery run – 8 km @ Zone 1 (easy)Build mileage without fatigue
TuesdayTempo run – 5 km @ Zone 3 (5:45 / mi) + 2 km warm‑up/cool‑downSharpen threshold speed
WednesdayCross‑train – 30 min low‑impact (cycling, swimming)Enhance aerobic base
ThursdayHill repeats – 8 × 200 m uphill @ Zone 4, jog down recoveryStrengthen legs and improve VO₂max
FridayRestRecovery
SaturdayLong run – 20 km @ Zone 2 (6:45 / mi)Endurance foundation
SundayActive recovery – 5 km easy + stretchingFlexibility and recovery

Repeat for four weeks, increasing the Saturday long run by 2 km each week (up to 28 km) and then dropping 20 % in week 4 for a recovery week. Use your personalised pace zones to keep each effort in the right range – the real‑time alerts will tell you if you drift too fast, and the collection feature lets you save the workout for future use.

Take‑away

A “good” marathon or half‑marathon time isn’t a fixed number on a chart; it’s a personal benchmark that balances your age, fitness, and ambition. By turning raw race data into a personalised pace chart, using adaptive training that reacts to your latest runs, and embracing custom workouts and real‑time feedback, you become the coach of your own journey. The next step? Try the workout above, tweak the zones as you progress, and watch the numbers align with the runner you’ve always wanted to be.

Run with curiosity, train with purpose, and let every kilometre bring you closer to the ‘good’ you’ve imagined.


References

Collection - 4-Week Sub-4-Hour Marathon Foundation

Recovery Run
recovery
1h11min
10.0km
View workout details
  • 1.0km @ 7'08''/km
  • 8.0km @ 7'08''/km
  • 1.0km @ 7'08''/km
Foundation Tempo
tempo
54min
9.0km
View workout details
  • 2.0km @ 6'30''/km
  • 5.0km @ 5'35''/km
  • 2.0km @ 6'30''/km
Cross-Training
30min
2.8km
View workout details
  • 5min @ 13'20''/km
  • 20min @ 10'00''/km
  • 5min @ 13'20''/km
Hill Repeats
hills
39min
5.9km
View workout details
  • 1.5km @ 7'30''/km
  • 8 lots of:
    • 200m @ 5'00''/km
    • 1min rest
  • 1.5km @ 7'30''/km
Rest Day
32min
5.3km
View workout details
  • 5min @ 6'00''/km
  • 1min rest
  • 20min @ 6'00''/km
  • 30s rest
  • 5min @ 6'00''/km
Foundation Long Run
long
2h18min
21.3km
View workout details
  • 5min @ 7'30''/km
  • 20.0km @ 6'25''/km
  • 5min @ 7'30''/km
Active Recovery
recovery
55min
7.4km
View workout details
  • 800m @ 7'30''/km
  • 5.0km @ 7'30''/km
  • 800m @ 7'30''/km
  • 5min rest
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